Friday, September 5, 2008

Height and the MVP

Dustin Pedroia's current blistering pace has put his name into the discussion for the AL MVP award this season. Much has been made of Pedroia's short stature, so I thought I would investigate the heights of recent MVP winners. I expected to find that Pedroia would be one of the shortest MVP winners in recent memory.

Sure enough, since 1980 there have been 56 MVP awards given in Major League Baseball. Only seven times has the award been given to a player under 6 feet tall:
  • 1989 Kevin Mitchell, 5'11 / 210 lbs (NL)
  • 1990 Ricky Henderson, 5'10 / 195 (AL)
  • 1991 Terry Pendelton, 5'9 / 180 (NL)
  • 1999 Ivan Rodriguez, 5'9 / 205 (AL)
  • 2001 Ichiro Suzuki, 5'9 / 160 (AL)
  • 2002 Miguel Tejada, 5'10, 170 (AL)
  • 2007 Jimmy Rollins, 5'8 / 160 (NL)

Dustin Pedroia is listed by both Mlb.com and baseball-reference.com as standing 5'9, 180 lbs. If he were to win, he would be taller than only Rollins for recent MVP winners. It is interesting to observe that baseball writers seem to favor short players in bursts (1989-1991, 1999-2002), before falling back in love with hulking outfielders.

Most-valuable second basemen are also rare, regardless of height. It has happened only 6 times previously:

  • 1931, Frankie Frisch, St. Louis Cardinals, 5'11, 165
  • 1949, Jackie Robinson, Brooklyn Dodgers, 5'11, 204
  • 1975, Joe Morgan, Cincinnati Reds, 5'7, 160
  • 1976, Joe Morgan, Cincinnati Reds, 5'7, 160
  • 1984, Ryne Sandberg, Chicago Cubs, 6'2, 180
  • 2000, Jeff Kent, San Francisco Giants, 6'1, 185

Pedroia would be the second-shortest second basemen to ever win the award. Chase Utley (6'1, 170) and Ian Kinsler (6'0, 200) are also capable of winning awards now or in the future, but they tower over Pedroia.

It is worth noting that the weights listed at the two sites I visited differ dramatically. Mlb.com lists Alex Rodriguez at 225 pounds, while baseball-reference.com lists him at 190 pounds (espn.com also lists A-Rod at 225). So it is likely that the weights I cite, taken from baseball-reference.com, date to when the players made their Major League debuts. Or perhaps simply what the players wish they weighed. Pedroia could not possibly weigh only 10 pounds less than A-Rod. And Dmitri Young does not weight 215 pounds.

Weight, after all, has become a sensitive topic in baseball, with media pointing out the conspicuous weight loss of players suspected of steroid use. Like basketball players who prefer to be the merely-tall 6'11 rather than the freakish 7'0, perhaps baseball players close to the 6-foot mark claim that last inch or two in order to make their hulking frames seem more proportional. After all, according to the government's BMI count, virtually all major league players are "overweight" or "obese."

So the listed weights of MVP players suspected of steroids (Barry Bonds, 228 pounds) or cheeseburgers (Mo Vaughn, 230 pounds) may be suspect. But unless steroids (or cheeseburgers) can change a player's height, it is safe to assume that the heights of the game's top talent remain chemically pure.

--------------

UPDATE: Jon Heyman, writing for SI.COM on 9/5/08, refers to Pedroia as five-foot-seven. Perhaps Heyman has visited the Red Sox clubhouse and read the tick marks on the doorframe to the trainer's room. In that case, Pedroia's MVP candidacy is even more remarkable, as far as height goes.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Baseball in the Olympics

Baseball and softball played their last games in the Olympics this week, as the International Olympic Committee voted them out of the Olympics starting with the 2012 games in London. There are several popular rationales floating around for this decision, which came out of a 2005 secret IOC vote. Among them are the lack of professional players in the Olympics, and the perception that baseball is insufficiently international. Meanwhile, MLB officials and writers have debated baseball's place in the games, generally concluding (rightly so) that baseball is an international game worthy of a place in the Olympics. To read the news is to believe that efforts are underway to get the sport reinstated for 2016.

The NBA is the popular example of how the Olympics can serve the marketing and financial interests of a major American sport. The NBA benefits from having the summer as its off-season, allowing the nation's biggest stars to participate without missing the regular season. Baseball does not have the luxury of such a schedule. Most people would agree that stopping the major league season for three weeks in August or September so stars could play in the Olympics is a bad decision. So, too, is having stars leave their teams for the Olympics, while their less-talented fellows continue the pennant hunt. So what solution does baseball have? One possibility seems obvious, but has received very little (if any) press.

Major league players who become free agents the winter before the games should strongly consider foregoing one major league season and play for their respective national teams. This would benefit everyone - the players, each national Olympic team, baseball's case for inclusion in the Olympics, and the industry of the sport.

The major disincentive to this plan is that free agents would not want to defer the signing of a big contract. Free agency is a prize in baseball with a particularly potent and symbolic history, and players understandably do not forsake it lightly. Therefore, let the decision be voluntary. But let baseball encourage players to make that decision by granting these Olympians one year of major league service time, as if they had been in the majors that year. Thus, backup catchers would not sacrifice their pensions by going for the gold. Baseball could then decide for itself whether teams could sign these free agents before the Olympics, with the understanding that they would join the major league team the following season, or whether they would simply sign contracts the following year.

Players benefit from this plan by having the opportunity to be Olympians without (so) significantly hurting their professional careers. Not everyone would skip a season, but the more patriotically-inclined could. National Olympic teams would benefit by having better players on their teams. Baseball could point to the major leaguers populating various Olympic teams as proof that the sport is international, and cares about the Olympics. And Major League Baseball could help improve its standing and popularity in each host country by raising the level of Olympic play, and bringing the MLB brand to the games along with its players. Sure, not many All-Stars would be at the Games, but it would be better than none.

Of course, there would be ramifications of this plan. If it became popular, some players would want contracts which ended the winter before a summer games. Or players would negotiate for the right to skip a season in order to play. Baseball clubs could make those decisions on their own, as they estimated the interests of their team. Baseball would lose some star players from its regular season, but their status as free agents would diminish a city fan base's feeling of being abandoned. Perhaps some players would be pressured to play for their national team, and criticized if they signed deals which skipped the Games. Every Major Leaguer seems open to that criticism at the moment, whether they hear it or not. Players would have to stay in shape for a much shorter baseball season, but that is their responsibility as professional athletes. A player's career statistics would also be interrupted, but WWII did not seem to hurt Ted Williams' chance at the Hall of Fame. What if an All-Star tore his shoulder in the Games and missed out on a $100 million dollar contract the following winter? Those are the breaks, and each player would knowingly take that chance. Kobe Bryant takes the same chance with every Olympics as well.

The real decision MLB would have to make concerns the World Baseball Classic. While the ostensible goal of the WBC is to create a World Cub of Baseball, the WBC also undermines baseball's bid for the Olympics. By creating the WBC, MLB essentially told the Olympics that it was taking its ball and playing elsewhere. Soccer can support a World Cup and an Olympic tournament because it is the biggest sport in the world. Baseball cannot quite make that claim. But it is a safe bet that baseball players would value an Olympic gold for their home country over a WBC gold (or trophy or whatever it is they win). MLB is probably better served financially by pitching its tent with the Olympics, and finding a compromise such as this to allow major leaguers to participate, then trying to create its own parallel international tournament.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

The Appeal of Round Numbers

Baseball has always been a game of numbers. Any sport with rules generates a family of numbers through which the sport can be discussed. Baseball has several characteristics, however, which particularly encourage the statistical analysis of what happens between the lines. First, baseball is a game of tallies: the pitcher tallies three strikes to get the batter out, the defense tallies three outs to end the inning, and each team gets (at least) nine innings in which to tally more runs than their opponents. These numbers are the primary method by which players and fans keep track of the progress of a game. There is no time clock to provide an alternative tracking system to these tallies. Furthermore, baseball’s deliberate pace provides fans the in-game time with which to easily keep track of these tallies. These characteristics encourage the statistical analysis of a baseball game.

More recently, statistical analysis has exploded as Major League front offices employ economics and statistics in their quests for better teams. Baseball fans, and baseball writing, seem to be splitting into two camps, defined by their respect for this new area of statistical analysis. Books like "Moneyball" and sites like firejoemorgan.com are proponents of this new school of deeper statistical analysis. They denounce batting average and pitching wins as unreliable indicators of a player's value to a team. On the other side of the barricades are "traditional" fans who bemoan the loss of a simpler game, and fear that their beloved pastime is being hijacked by math nerds seeking to turn it into a Dungeons and Dragons affair.

Yet it is worth remembering and acknowledging the deep connection baseball fans of all stripes have with the accumulation and discussion of statistics. Baseball is unparalleled in American sport in its archival history of statistical representations of players and teams. Baseball has been keeping track of hits, home runs, and wins for more than one hundred years. This accumulation of data has created a special category of deeply satisfying numbers which deserve recognition apart from their debatable merits as accurate representations of player value.

A curious event occurred recently in Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia which provides a useful introduction to this point. Ken Griffey Jr. came to town with the Cincinnati Reds. Philadelphia has some of the most ruthless and critical fans in the major leagues. It is a city famous for once booing Santa Claus. At the time, Griffey was sitting on 599 career home runs and nursing a sore knee. Yet every time Griffey came to the plate, the Philadelphia fans stood and applauded. On June 3rd, Griffey pinch-hit in the 8th inning of a close game and Tom Gordon walked him on four pitches. The crowd booed Gordon.

Why did the crowd do this? Because the fans in the stands appreciated the significance, and the underlying satisfaction, of 600 career home runs. It is an exclusive club, one of the many "clubs" baseball creates to recongize players with certain statistical achievements. Of course, Griffey is also a well-respected, first-ballot Hall of Famer with no history of beating the Phillies in any meaningful game. Yet he was cheered, and Tom Gordon was booed (of course, Tom Gordon is a mediocre, not-particularly-respected Philly with a history of losing meaningful games).

Human beings as a species seem to enjoy big, round numbers. Perhaps this suggests a psychological connection to our primate ancestors' enjoyment of couting their ten fingers and toes. Baseball fans seem particularly succeptible to this enjoyment, however. The game is to blame, for it offers a veritable harem of satisfying, occasionally arousing, big clean round numbers. Consider the following:
  • .300 batting average
  • .400 batting average
  • 3,000 career hits
  • 500 career home runs
  • 300 pitching wins
  • 50 home runs in a season
  • 100 RBI in a season
  • 100 team wins in a season
A perfect-storm confluence of factors allow these numbers to scratch a very deep, and very enjoyable, itch. First, they represent impressive individual achievement. Next, they are baseball's attempt at addressing a sports-wide problem: the comparison of today's greats to yesterday's greats. Baseball uses its archival statistical history to tackle this problem, and because a baseball game is so easily translatable onto paper, it makes these historical comparisons seem slightly more valid. These round numbers also serve as a common point of reference for cross-generational conversations about who-was-better, another deeply satisfying reward for being a fan. Finally, these numbers help facilitate baseball's satisfying metaphorical applications. As a hitter, failing seven out of ten times means you are a good hitter. Baseball fans love applying that fact to non-baseball situations.

The evidence of baseball's appreciation for these numbers is everywhere. The "500 Home Run Club," the "3,000 Hit Club" and the "300 Win Club" are, steroids aside, guaranteors of entrance into the Hall of Fame. A no-hitter and a perfect game are celebrated as great pitching performances, but part of that celebration comes from the numerical perfection of the performance. Both historically and today, the batting title is as prestigous as the MVP and the Cy Young award, even though the latter two are much more representative of a player's phenomenal year. And what gets baseball writers more excited than a hitter with a shot at .400 or the Triple Crown?

Baseball's continued aherence to two critical structural numbers also makes these beautiful round numbers more meaningful and satisfying. The distance between bases has been 90 feet since the 1840s, and pitching rubber to plate has been 60 feet 6 inches since 1893. These two distances are the foundation upon which the game is built. Tinker with either, and the statistics on either side of that change become incomparable with one another.

Consider how far batting averages would plummet if home to first was 100 feet. Fielders could play at today's depths (for the batted ball is not travelling any faster), but would have slightly more time to throw to first. Infield singles become outs, fielders' choices become double plays. Conversely, shorten the basepaths to 80 feet, and imagine the batting averages Ichiro could post. Fielders would have to choose between playing deep enough to stop ground balls, and playing shallow enough to attempt the throw. Likewise with the mound. Back the mound up to 65 feet, and Billy Wagner's 100 mph fastball becomes much more hittable. Shorten the mound to 55 feet, and try to imagine standing in the left-handed batters' box against Randy Johnson. Baseball has kept these two crucial field dimensions consistent, and that continuity adds legitimacy to the comparison of past and present statistics.

This stable of round numbers may not be the best indicator of a player's value to a team. OBP and VORP are being proven to be more useful tools in constructing winning ballclubs. But certain characteristics of the game have created ways to think and write about the game in statistical terms. The arguments over average versus OBP show in themselves that baseball fans of all types care deeply about numbers in their beloved game, no matter to what purpose those numbers are employed.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

The Mid-Season Weight Race

With the acquisition of CC Sabathia, the Milwaukee Brewers make a bold leap up the rankings of the heaviest 25-man roster in baseball. The Chicago White Sox are still in first with a cumulative active roster weight of 5,660 pounds, but the Brewers are not far behind:

1) White Sox - 5,660 lbs
2) Nationals - 5,510 lbs
3) Dodgers - 5,410 lbs
4) Reds - 5,395 lbs
5) Brewers - 5,365 lbs

The White Soxs are a well-rounded team effort, led by franchise stalwarts Jim Thome (6'3, 255) and Jose Contreras (6'4, 255). The Nationals are carried by several standouts, notably closer Jon Raugh (6'11, 290), first base prodigy Dmitri Young (6'2, 300) and outfielder Wily Mo Pena (6'3, 270).

The loss of Sabathia has tumbled the Indians to 24th at a slim 5,040 pounds, tied with the Tampa Rays and just behind the Phillies. The Detroit Tigers carry the lightest roster, at a positively Calista Flockhart-like 4,985 pounds. The quiet heroes of their roster are the bean-pole pitching duo of Freddy Dolsi (6'0, 160) and Casey Fossum (6'1, 160).

The addition of Sabathia also bolsters the Brewer's rise through the ranks of heaviest pitching staff in the majors. However, even with their new ace's baggy bulk, the Brewers still only crack the top 10. The biggest move on this front was the Yankee's quiet addition of Sidney Ponson (6'1, 260) who pushes the Yankees into the lead with a 12-man pitching staff weighing a combined 2,730 pounds. The Orioles are second at 2,725, although they currently carry 13 pitchers. At the other end of the rankings are the pitching-thin (literally) Tigers at 2,195 and the youthful and svelte Rays at 2,235 pounds.

Finally, as it is approaching All-Star weekend, here is this year's All-Star light and heavy pitching rotations.

Light rotation:
Tim Lincecum, 5' 11", 170 lbs
Roy Oswalt, 6' 0", 185 lbs (bad season, good track record)
Scott Kazmir, 6'0, 190 lbs
Zack Greinke, 6'2, 185
Tim Hudson, 6'1, 170

Heavy rotation:
CC Sabathia, 6'7, 290
Carlos Zambrano, 6'5, 255 lbs
John Lackey, 6'6, 245
Brad Penny, 6'4 260 (bad season, solid frame)
Felix Hernandez, 6'3, 230 lbs

And the Weighted Cy Young winner of the first half is Athletics pitcher Justin Duchscherer (6'2, 200 lbs), who after 101 innings thrown has an era lower than his weight (1.78 era).

~Sources: espn.com and mlb.com roster information on 07/09 and 07/10/2008

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Sign, Pitch, Language, Wittgenstein

Ludwig Wittgentstein begins his Philosophical Investigations with a quotation from St. Augustine about learning a language. Here it is, translated from the Latin:

"When they (my elders) named some object, and accordingly moved towards something, I saw this and I grasped that the thing was called by the sound they uttered when they meant to point it out. Their intention was shewn by their bodily movements, as it were the natural language of all peoples: the expression of the face, the play of the eyes, the movement of other parts of the body, and the tone of voice which expresses our state of mind in seeking, having, rejecting, or avoiding something. Thus, as I heard words repeatedly uded in their proper places in various sentences, I gradually learnt to understand what objects they signified; and after I had trained my mouth to form these signs, I used them to express my own desires."

Wittgenstein boils down Augustine's paragraph into a few statements: "Every word has a meaning. This meaning is correlated with the word. It is the object for which the word stands. (1)" The meaning of a word, or a sign, is the very object it symbolizes, or stands for. The meaning, the soul of the word, according to Augustine's passage, is outside of the word. It is the object, the thing, the thing in itself. Wittgenstein wants to annihilate this conception. He wants to uncover the riches of just what language can be and to find out just how much we are missing in our common conceptions of language and its use.

Wittgenstein goes on to probe our various definitions of language until each one falls apart, using the concept of a language game as his destructive tool. A language-game, for Wittgenstein, is a "primitive language" or a language defined by a small set of rules, existing in a closed system. His example is the "builders language" of section 2, in which the only words ("slab", "pillar," "block", "beam") are used by builders when addressing their assistants. The meaning of each of these words is for the assistant to go fetch one of the four items, and bring it back to the builder.

Wittgenstein looks at how complicated the meanings of words can become despite the primitive nature of this language-game. One interpretation of the meaning of the words is to say that the words stand for the four different kinds of objects themselves. Another is to say that the combination of the object and the action of its fetching consist of the meaning of the word. A third way is to think of the words as not words at all, but sentences, which state: "Bring me a slab/pillar/block/beam."

Translocate our current thoughts about this "builder" language-game to the silent hand gesture language that catchers and pitchers use to communicate which pitch should be thrown next in a baseball game. Many elements are simple. There are only a few words, and we can understand their definition in the same way as the "builder" language-game. A single index finger, pointed downwards, can be thought to stand for a fastball pitch. It can also be said to be the combination of the concept of a fastball and the demand to throw on at that particular moment. A third way to describe it's meaning could be as a sentence: "Throw a fastball." If we include the possibility of the pitcher using his only word, which is a head shake that denies, authoritatively, the catcher's word, then we can say that the index finger pointed downward can also have this meaning: "Will you throw a fastball?"

St. Augustine would say that one finger means: fastball. And that two fingers means: curveball. And three fingers means: 2-seamer. And so on. But, in doing so, he is denying the many layers of meaning that exist outside of simple object symbolism. It is not wrong, of course, to say that the meanings in the silent language between pitchers and catchers lie in the types of pitches that can be thrown, but it is wrong to deny the infinity of possibility in meanings that we can draw from the language when we consider a baseball game in its entirety.

Consider this hypothetical situation: It is the top of the seventh inning, with no runners on, and Chris Coste, a right-handed Major League backup catcher steps to the plate. He is facing Carlos Marmol, a right handed relief pitcher with an effective slider. Geovany Soto is catching for Marmol, and, given the rules of Baseball and the desires of each team to win the game, he and Marmol would like to see Chris Coste get out. Soto puts down three index fingers, a sign which means (in a simple understanding) "slider," and then touches the inside of his right knee. This second sign means (again, in a simple understanding) that the pitch should be on the outside part of the plate.

Wittgenstein's St. Augustine would say that there are two words. One, the three fingers pointed downward, means: slider. And two, the touch to the inside of his right knee means: a pitch that is on the outside part of the plate. His explanation of events that follow would be that Marmol sees these two words, thinks of the objects that they stand for, and then goes from there.

Is it so simple? Wittgenstein would say no. There are many questions to ask St. Augustine. Do the three fingers stand for a more general or universal slider, or Carlos Marmol's particular slider? Do they stand for the particular pitch of Carlos Marmol that most conforms to everyone's general expectations of what a slider is? Do they stand for the event of Carlos Marmol throwing a pitch that most baseball experts would agree is a slider? Do they stand for "Carlos Marmol's third pitch in his arsenal" which happens to be a pitch that most people would say "slider" if they saw it? Does they stand for "this unique pitch-event that is about to happen" or do they stand for "the aggregate of every 'slider' you, Carlos Marmol, have ever thrown?" It seems that we cannot simply say what the sign "stands for," because it does not stand for just one thing, but many things.

Wittgenstein would have us look further, and see what we can pull from this seemingly simple conversation between Soto and Marmol. To start, we can do what we did before and think of the different simple meanings those two signs could have. We could come up with grammatical rules that define how they are to be understood, like this one: "Location always follows pitch-type." We could examine the various different simple meanings or translations for the signs, as we did above.

We can also consider the signs in the context of the entirety of the baseball game. Couldn't an equally convincing meaning for the three fingers pointed downward be translated into English as: "Throw a slider next, because Chris Coste is a fastball hitter who likes to swing early in the count. He looks fastball, and will swing at your slider, because your slider looks like a fastball when it comes out of your hand, and, with proper positioning, he will swing at it as though it were a fastball. Because sliders break away from the batter, there is a good chance that he will swing and miss, giving him one strike and putting you, Carlos Marmol, ahead in the count."?

It is possible to answer, yes, but that particular meaning, or at least the parts concerning justification and intention, seem more to be context for the language and less the meaning of the word. Perhaps it is better to say that at any given time, a sign's meaning must be analyzed with its context, and cannot be readily separated from that context, which is the collection of conditions given by that particular and unique game in which the sign appears. If we take that to be true, we could never understand the three finger symbol until we understood the conditions of the game and the justification of the intentions of the speaker of that symbol.

This opens up a bigger philosophical quandary: if we are to understand the meanings of signs as being dependent on their particular in-game context, we need to understand the meaning of the language of these particular signs as a whole in a game.

Let's make some propositions about the intentions of the languge first:

1) The goal of any pitcher catcher team is to get 3 outs per inning while allowing the fewest possible runs
2)Catchers and Pitchers are aware enough of the game that they fully understand the context in which every sign is thrown
3)It is usually better to throw the fewest possible pitches to reach the goal of 3 outs

The first thing we can see is that each sign given by the catcher contains within itself its own destruction-- the pitcher-catcher language, if it follows it's guiding intentions, seeks to use the fewest possible words to end the conversation. Hidden in the layers of meaning in the word "Three finger sign" we can see it's suicidal meaning. The sooner the conversation is over, the better. Each sign given seeks to end the inning, and to therefore end itself.

The second notion that emerges from these three propositions is that the meaning of each sign is grounded in the intentions of the catcher (and, if he is a good catcher, we can assume his intentions are synchronous with those of his teammates) to avoid runs and achieve 3 outs. So, given his knowlege of the situation, a single finger pointed down means not just "throw me a fasball," but also: In this particular context, a fastball in this location will give us greater odds of achieving an out and avoiding runs than any other pitch.

And
so, we see that, through this notion of "odds", the signs contain within their meaning a fundamental unknowable, unsignifiable, and alien element: the reality of the situation that will follow after the sign. The sign's meaning, it seems, points towards the best situation achievable directly after the pitch. When the catcher points 4 fingers downwards and taps his outside knee, he is asking for a sinker low and away, which we can assume is the most likely pitch to achieve an out. Let's look at a particular context and see how that meaning becomes richer and begins to incorporate these unknowable factors.

There is a slow runner on first, and there is one out in the inning. The pitcher has an effective sinking fastball, which more often then not, when hit, produces a ground ball in the infield. Ground balls are generally the most reliable way to achieve a double play, which, in this particular context, is the best possible outcome that can be expected from one pitch. The sinking fastball produces ground balls most of the time contact is made. However, let's more details to the situation and get a richer context for the meaning of the sign.

The count, as it stands, is one ball and two strikes. The pitcher has two good pitches in his arsenal: a sinking fastball and a deceptive change-up. Not counting foul balls and pitches outside the strike zone, the sinking fastball is hit in some fashion by same-handed hitters 70% of the time, while the change-up is hit only 50% of the time, and only 20% of the time after it follows 3 or more fastballs. However, when contact is made on the change-up, it tends to produce a safe hit much more often than the sinking fastball.

T
he pitcher has thrown 3 sinking fastballs to this batter so far. Two have been fouled off, and one has been outside the strike zone. We see that there is no obvious choice for a pitch. If the pitcher throws a fastball in the strike zone, there is a good chance it will be put into play, which could potentially result in a double-play, which would be the best possible outcome. However, if the pitcher throws the change-up, there is a good chance the batter will be struck out, which is the play that involves the least amount of immediate risk of a run scoring. However, the pitcher will then have to face another batter, while the double-play will end the inning.

So, when that catcher points four fingers to the ground, the meaning of the sign is not only linked to a particular pitch and location, but also contains within it a huge unknowable element, and what can only be described as a guess about the results from the pitch. It says "here is what we hope happens," but also cannot help but also mean, "by putting the ball in play, we forfeit many knowable things-- we are now depending on our fielders to make a play and depending on the hitter to hit the way we think he might hit." The desired outcome is actually an unknowable situation, whereas the desired outcome of the meaning of a change-up sign is entirely knowable: a strikeout. Thus, the meaning of the four finger sign is more of a open ended sentence. We might even interpret it as a question: what will happen? Given the context, it's meaning is purposefully hazy.

This shows that the meaning of the signs cannot just stand for a pitch, or a general pitch, or a type of pitch, etc. The meaning of the sign is always related to context, and the meaning becomes clearer or hazier depending on the knowledge of potential outcomes and their likelihood.

Baseball has an enormous history, which has been (for the most part) recorded in detail. With such an enormous context, we can begin to understand just how difficult it is for a player on the field, the catcher, to have such a perfect understanding of each particular context and situation in each game. The chaos, or the unknowable, extend further into the meaning of each sign as we consider how, despite knowing certain kinds of odds and facts about plays in the past, a new, unexpected play is always possible. Despite baseball's long, storied, and well-documented history, it is entirely possible that something brand-new and unique will occur. The sign must account for that possibility in its meaning, and when a sign asks that the desired outcome be put in the hands of the fielders, it might even be suggesting such a play as being the most valuable.

So the catcher and the pitcher, knowledgeable in both their own personal histories with the game and the histories of the game as a whole, speak to each other with these signs in many layers, depending on each other to know the context as well as it can be known and to see the signs as clearly as the signer intends them. And so, when a pitcher shakes his head, where is the disagreement? Is it a refutation of the catcher's judgment, or a disagreement with the interpretation of the context itself? Or, like all shifting areas of meaning in language, somewhere in between?

And so we seem farther from meaning and farther from a comprehensive appreciation for this one small part of the language of signs in baseball. And yet, when contemplating language in its infinite complexities and possibilities, one always seems to arrive here, in this place of not-quite-good-enough understanding, with many more ideas, and many fewer solid concepts. Language, like baseball, is fluid, and in a game of infinite possibilities it seems only right that it's language should be equally infinite in its depth.


Monday, May 5, 2008

Welcome to First to Third

Welcome to First to Third. Our all of our contributors have undergraduate degrees in some useless and impractical discipline. Our talents have been wasting away.

No longer. Be warned, Baseball. Remember Ken Burns? How about Bill James? Are you ready for more? You ain't seen nothing yet.